Nigeria’s Q1 GDP growth of 3.89 per cent in 2026 has been described as evidence that the economy remains on a gradual recovery path, according to the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE. The assessment followed the release of the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, report on real Gross Domestic Product performance for the first quarter of 2026. The CPPE stated that the Q1 GDP growth reflects improving macroeconomic stability, resilience in non-oil sectors, and continued expansion in key areas of economic activity.
The Nigerian economy has faced a series of structural and macroeconomic adjustments in recent years, including subsidy reforms, exchange rate changes, and fiscal consolidation measures. These reforms have influenced inflation trends, business costs, and investment decisions across multiple sectors.
According to the NBS, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2026, compared to 3.13 per cent recorded in Q1 2025. The performance also reflects a slight moderation from the 4.07 per cent growth recorded in Q4 2025, indicating continued but uneven economic momentum.
The CPPE noted that while the Q1 GDP growth reflects stability and gradual recovery, structural challenges remain, particularly in manufacturing performance, energy supply constraints, and productivity gaps.
In its analysis of the report, CPPE stated that the Q1 GDP growth demonstrates “continued macroeconomic stabilisation, improving business confidence, and resilience of key non-oil sectors.”
The Centre highlighted that the services sector remained the largest driver of growth, supported by activities in telecommunications, trade, financial services, real estate, and information technology. Agriculture also maintained steady performance, contributing to overall output expansion in the first quarter.
According to CPPE, non-oil sectors accounted for 96.08 per cent of total GDP in Q1 2026, underscoring their central role in sustaining economic growth. The oil sector, while still important, contributed a smaller share compared to non-oil activities during the review period.
The organisation, led by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, also observed that manufacturing output remained weak relative to other sectors. It noted that power supply challenges and production costs continued to limit industrial expansion and value addition.
CPPE stated that the Q1 GDP growth outcome should be viewed with cautious optimism, as it reflects both progress in macroeconomic stabilisation and ongoing structural vulnerabilities.
The report also pointed out that trade, construction, digital services, and transport activities played a significant role in supporting overall economic performance during the quarter.
The CPPE analysis suggests that sustained Q1 GDP growth may support investor confidence and reinforce expectations of gradual economic recovery. However, the group emphasised that long-term growth will depend on stronger industrial capacity, improved power supply, and enhanced productivity across sectors.
Economic analysts also note that while growth is improving, its distribution and quality remain critical concerns. Weak manufacturing output and infrastructure constraints could limit the pace of inclusive development if not addressed.
The report reinforces the importance of policy focus on industrialisation, export competitiveness, and energy reforms to sustain growth momentum beyond short-term stabilisation.
